On the surface, market timing seems no less risky than all other strategies of trading and investing. However, unless done carefully on a regular basis with the best data available, attempting to actually predict the direction of the market is a hit or miss.
Traders and investors who attempt to time markets often use metrics such as technical indicators, market data, and economic conditions to predict logically the direction the market will take over time. Traders often swear by market timing; skilled traders can maximize profits and minimize losses through careful prior analysis based on short-term predictions, making regular incremental profits on a daily basis.
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However, short-term traders have the advantage of more time dedicated to understanding many other complicating variables, something that investors do not always have. In the long term, many predictions will end up failing. Frequently, investors who try to time the market end up buying too soon or selling too early, often underperforming in the long run compared to their more conservative counterparts who decide to weather the ups and downs of the market.
Sound investment strategy does not look exclusively at the immediately foreseeable future but weighs in other factors, including risks. Rather than holding out for the gradual rise and fall of prices, investors should instead focus on using market analysis to identify new industries and companies to invest in. Through careful fundamental analysis, investors can select companies with good prospects of consistent future performance.
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Besides this, investors should also hedge for potential losses through proper asset allocation and portfolio diversification, choosing not only an assortment of companies but also a varied collection of investment types. Those with higher risk tolerances, if they feel confident, can set aside a portion of their funds to time the markets.
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